June 22, 2019

From my morning chasecast storm chasing email forecast discussion:

"Day 1 Today: Primary target is southeast Nebraska, somewhere on a line from Hebron to Beatrice to Nebraska City. Digging the warm front/cold front triple point as the best shear/cape combo. Look for initiation early to mid afternoon given less capping, strong instability and a little bit better forcing from the cold front. Storms will likely quickly transition to HP and then to an MCS, so a chase may not yield a super long window of opportunity for photogenic tornadoes, so get there soon rather than later. Watch out for flooding as you approach the Missouri. I believe all the river crossings are closed between Omaha and St. Joe, so it's game over if you get left on the wrong side of the river.

Secondary targets: You could play down the cold front, possibly pick up a Tail End Charlie type storms on the KS/OK border maybe south of Wichita. Could be more discrete and a cleaner chase possibly. However, shear not as favorable for a tornado here with the surface flow veered on on the cold front. Even the warm sector shear ahead of the front is pretty lackluster until near dark, so if your storm can stay discrete and surface based through then, it might have a shot. Also watch out for TEC to fall behind the outflow boundary of the cells to the northeast, which could be game over too.

Secondary target: HRRR adamant of prefrontal initiation ahead of the cold front near Kansas City. May provide a window of opportunity for a discrete and may be a tornado producer with the backed although modest surface winds of the warm sector. Watch out for flooding along 29 and squirrely terrain. Storm is rather displaced from the better upper level flow. You'll definitely see an HP transition here given very high PWATs, lack of upper level venting, modest speed shear, saturated moisture, extreme CAPE, blah blah blah.... all of this is why I'm not heading over there.

Secondary target: Caprockish, Childressish area. Decent moisture getting into the higher terrain down there. Noting some very warm temps aloft just to the southwest, but there appears to be a decent hole in the lid strength and a gap in the 700 mb temps ahead of the robust EML. Well displaced form the upper level winds though so storms could be undersheared. A more modest, conditional play that may wind up being the epic structure show, but Caprock magic could say otherwise tornado wise."

A typical morning with the team unfolding at Lazio's Coffee Bar in Topeka with Hank working on a hand analysis, Anton in the middle of a good story, and me geeking out on model parameters.

All we could squeeze out of this chase were some weak striated updrafts sucking cool stable air in overcast skies. A solid bust.

Dinner at Las Cabanas in Marsyville followed by some fire in the sky was definitely the highlight of the day.