June 10, 2017

Team Turtle Forecast:

"Saturday: Stagnant height falls in NE, mediocre low level flow, high T/Td spreads, elongated low, glancing blow from the upper level flow, and capping problems have dissuaded me from an NE play. Instead am looking at Eau Claire, WI. Low level flow is veered, but that's not a deal breaker for the Midwest where a strong southwest low level jet still makes for curved hodos and some helicity. Given issues with terrain and possibly storm speed due to the veered wind profiles, we may try to make this a highway intercept: getting a storm that crosses 94, highway 53, or 39. It's the best shot at a tornado that I can see on Saturday, and it's logistically practical for us as we snake our way up 90/94. Not a great play, and I'm only considering it since we're passing through and I haven't gotten a Wisconsin tornado yet."

Storms failed to initiate at our target in Eau Claire. We spent the entire day people watching at a gas station before we called it and headed to Rochester, MN for the night.

"Updated thoughts and I'm starting to lose the faith.

The HRRR is shutting us down for today. The nice surface trough that was depicted earlier is losing it's organization and lack of good lift and residual capping is has the HRRR suppressing initiation across WI until after dark with mediocre updrafts. We're considering calling it early and heading over to Rochester for the night, but will hold and reassess."