June 7, 2022

Morning email to the group:

"Turtle thoughts: Target 1: Low payout safe bet: HRRR adamant of upslope supercell initiation off the Cheyenne, storm tracking southeast through the baroclinic zone from Sidney to McCook between 22-1z. Low level thermodynamics to me suggest a structure show with limited tornado chances due to initially high spreads followed by mounting inhibition.

Target 2: Safe storm payout, higher stakes tornado gamble. Moisture and upslope flow should kick off the Raton with supercells tracking toward Campo by evening. 30 degree spreads suggest storm needs to survive to sw KS for a decent shot at a condensed* supercell** tornado. That's questionable with anemic midlevel flow. 3Cape is paltry.

Target 3: Higher risk of bust, higher payout: North central Kansas to south central Nebraska. NAM and HRRR in agreement of surface trough with tongue of strong surface heating extending west to east across northern KS. Expect storm initiation off the nose of this by late afternoon or early evening. Spreads substantially lower here due to moisture convergence pooling against the stalled front in southern Nebraska. Higher CAPE airmass to the south is more favorable if storms can tap it. More subtle forcing and some inhibition makes this target conditional or questionable I think. HRRR does not sustain this cell.

Turtle was eyeing Wakeeney to Norton, KS for initiation, a stone's throw from Alma. We defaulted to a north play this morning and are now committed to it, so will rule out the Raton.

Given the goal of our research mission, Turtle concurs with Woodchuck and a Target 3 type play. We were just picking up on that signal when your email arrived. Conch holder will be necessary while we sit 120 miles east of the Sidney-McCook steamroller waiting for our turn.

Turtle westbound through southeast Nebraska"

The safe bet low payout looked to be a southeast moving supercell coming off the Cheyenne Ridge into sw NE. However, initial T/Td spreads followed by mounting inhibition looked to limit tornado potential. We targeted higher moisture to the east off the nose of the surface trough where tornado parameters looked better for our research mission of tornado photogrammetry.

We hung out at a park on the south side of Alama while I got the TOAD operational, a motorized camera enclosure we hoped to use for our research effort. This day would be our first day of team operations for the season. The heat and humidity was oppressive while I worked atop the vehicle.

Demoing the TOAD for Anton:

I was handed the conch and had us dive into Kansas after a developing storm near Colby.

Just as CAMs forecast, cells were not sustained. we stopped short of intercepting the dying convection in Stockton, KS.

With cirrus blowing overhead and forecast inhibition starting to increase after 23z I decided we better bail on our primary target and make for the ongoing elevated hailers that were coming out of the NE Panhandle. We took 183 due north to intercept a severe warned supercell coming out of Broken Bow. The Subuaru threw a bunch of error codes and went into safe mode so we detached from the group to let the car cool down and clear the codes.

Once rolling again, we realized we'd never get ahead of the acclerating storm before dark, which now featured a bowing 70 dbz RFD gust front. We called the chase, and got a room at our favorite Midtown Motel in Kearney, which is where we wound up after the wheel flew off in 2011. So after our recent car trouble we had come full circle. We got a great Impossible Burger and brews with the group at the Cunningham Journal, which was the highlight of the day. The line caught us while we ate, thunder shaking the windows.